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Opinion: What Can We Expect? A Close Analysis of Modern Foreign Relations

By: Ian Harman


As President Donald Trump’s term comes to a close and president-elect Joe Biden is slowly welcomed into office, one can only look back at the successes and deficits of America in the past four years. President Trump’s success is debated on many fronts by Americans across the country, however the foreign relations that Trump’s administration affected stand out as one of the most complex matters of this past term. As the country’s new administration approaches power and Joe Biden will take on the relations formed and broken, it is crucial to analyze and discuss what president-elect Biden will specifically be dealing with. In this overview of modern foreign policy, we will take a closer look at how Donald Trump and his administration affected the country’s relations, as well as discuss and predict how our new administration will change them.


To begin, we will look into the United States' involvement in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and the relationships with the affiliated countries. These relationships are vital to the United States and by analyzing Pew Research Center’s study of American approval as well as President Trump’s interactions with other world leaders regarding the matter, an accurate depiction of Trump’s international efforts can be understood.



How do America’s current relations with allies look?


Well, frankly, not great, and this truth is painfully obvious in the Pew Research Center’s recent study in regards to the United States’s influence around the globe. Pew provides graphs and figures (like the one shown to the right) which highlight how the global view of America has changed over Trump’s presidency. Pew took information from 13 different countries from around the world, and with these studies, trends become clear. In the figure shown here, NATO countries like Canada, the UK, France, and Germany show an extremely significant decrease in favorability in regards to the United States, some even dropping by upwards of 35%. These trends suggest a major flaw in relations with each country, and there is plausible reasoning for these declines; that being Trump’s actions.

For Trump, this information shows that, regarding NATO alliances, he affected U.S. foreign policy with his actions. America sits at an extremely low approval rating, and president-elect Biden will inherit this when he comes into office in January 2021. However, things may not be as bad as they seem. While Biden was vice president for Obama, they inherited similar approval ratings from the same countries (approximately 18%), showing that historically he has worked these ratings up to new heights. This bodes well for U.S. foreign relations since if Biden can repeat similar steps he took in 2008 to improve these approval ratings, the United States of America will eventually climb back up to its history of positive global recognition. To accomplish this, Biden should focus on the direct, human relationships with the leaders of the countries America is allied with and work towards repairing the more personal disagreements Trump may have caused within NATO.


While NATO alliances do hold a lot of importance to the United States, other relationships with non-NATO nations are important to reflect on as well. Countries like Russia and China, as well as America’s involvement in the middle east, played a major role in Trump’s four years of foreign policy. In this section, we will review what Trump’s relationships with Russia, China, and the middle east looked like throughout his presidency and how that will change with Biden in office.



How do these more tense relationships look for the U.S.?


Interestingly enough, they could be far worse. In fact, President Trump managed to reach more positive relationships with some nations that the United States previously had more tension with. To begin, Russian relations have grown past expected levels. Pew Research Center discovered in 2018 that the favorability rating of the United States in the Russian population went from 15% under Obama to an impressive 41% under Trump. In addition to this rise in favorability among the Russian people, Russians also feel more confident in President Trump, with 53% of the population feeling as if he can act correctly on the global stage, which is “higher than his (Trump’s) two predecessors ever had.” These statistics indicate a correlation between Trump’s popularity in Russia and America’s positive image amongst the Russian people and suggest that President Trump is the reason why the United States of America has a more positive image in Russia. This increase in Trump’s popularity in Russia can most likely be accredited to his somewhat positive relationship with the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin. In April of 2020, Kremlin Putin and President Trump released a joint statement memorializing the meeting of American and Soviet troops at the Elbe River in 1945, using this date as a platform to reflect and expand on bettering American-Russian relations. According to those who drafted the statement the two leaders delivered, “The broader intent is to underscore how the two nations can overcome their disagreements for a larger purpose”(WSJ), signaling an effort on both sides to improve the current relationship between the United States and Russia. While the United States might still think of Russia as a rival, the Russian people seem to have interpreted the actions that these leaders have taken in a positive manner, which helps clarify the fact that President Trump is the reason U.S. favorability has risen within Russia.


For Biden, however, this poses an extremely complicated dilemma in regards to the relationship he is inheriting. The United States’ relationship with Russia relies heavily on how well Trump and Putin get along, and with a new leader and cabinet coming into power, it will be extremely difficult for this relationship to continue. There is pre-existing tension between Biden and Putin, with Biden making cold remarks towards Putin during Biden’s term as vice president. Naturally, these tensions will make relations between these leaders very difficult. In addition, Russia is said to have had a presence in the 2016 election, allegedly in favor of Trump. The FBI released a statement to the Senate in 2017 claiming that “Russia’s 2016 presidential election influence effort was its boldest to date in the United States,'' introducing the idea of a possibility that Russia pushed Trump into power for their own agenda. This factor is going to be extremely important for Biden to realize since Russia could have only been working to improve American relations because Trump was in power. Given this situation, Biden will have a harder time establishing a good relationship with Putin and Russia and will need to use more caution when creating policy that is directed towards Russia. It is fair to predict that American-Russian relations will somewhat deteriorate under Biden, but with the right rhetoric and consistent efforts to give Russia a more positive connotation in the United States, Biden may be able to maintain a positive U.S.-Russian relationship.


While Russian relations may be important to keep an eye on, Chinese relations are also very difficult to understand. Currently, China’s presence on the global stage is very perplexing, with President Xi claiming that the United States is a declining global power, as well as emphasizing China’s growing global influence. Some in China, including foreign policy scholar Yan Xuetong, believe that Trump ruined the U.S. centered alliances, giving America a weaker global presence and opening opportunity for China to expand its influence. These sentiments presented by China raise many questions about what China’s intentions are in the future and how they plan on expanding their influence as China says. President Trump and his administration have had no clear response to this, however, with a change in power, Biden now has many opportunities to showcase the influence the United States still has. More specifically, he can counter China’s claims and restore America’s image of a global influence through some specific actions, those being rekindling relationships with NATO allies and showing American influence in the middle east, in particular, the war on terror in Syria as well as conflicts in Iraq. First off, a reconnection with NATO-allied countries will help the United States establish a stronger global presence, as NATO influence reaches almost all parts of the world. By doing so, the United States will have a much easier time spreading its influence, as this renewed relationship with NATO would most likely raise the U.S. favorability ratings in many countries. In the middle east, American influence in conflict helps re-establish a military presence, and therefore Biden may be inclined to take action in current conflicts. In Syria, the United States has about 500 troops guarding oil fields alongside Syrian troops to defend against ISIS. In order to show a stronger military presence, the Biden administration may be inclined to station more troops in Syria. By doing so, America will have a more influential role in the war on terror, and possibly even shift this conflict from a Syrian-American joint effort to an almost exclusive American effort, showing a much more present global American influence. In Iraq, Trump has begun to establish a strong presence, and it is most likely in Biden’s best interest to maintain this. A military presence in Iraq is extremely important since, in late December of 2020, the U.S. embassy in Baghdad was targeted by multiple missiles. Trump believes that the aggressor is Iran, however, regardless of who owns the missiles, a military presence is necessary for America to control the situation. If Biden can use a military presence to de-escalate the situation, there is no doubt that the influence of the military would be in question by the Chinese, and therefore bode well for the future of worldwide American influence. If successful in the middle east, the United States will be seen as the driving force behind the war on terror (more than they already are), and prove China’s claims towards America’s shrinking global influence wrong.


It is extremely important to note that proving China’s claims (of the United States being a shrinking global influence) wrong is not crucial because China said them, but because China is correct, and therefore it is most likely in the best interest of the U.S. to regain that global influence.


America’s overseas relations are extremely important, however, relations with border countries are also extremely important to consider as well. With Canada’s relations being considered under the NATO section, that leaves one more border nation to look at Mexico. Mexican-American relations, over the course of Trump’s presidency, have been extremely complex. In order to understand how they will affect America in the future, we must first look at how Mexican relations looked under President Trump.



What do Mexican-American relations look like?


As of 2020, Mexican relations are, while very confusing, not completely negative. Trump’s historic dealings with Mexico have been excessively complicated, and to understand how Biden’s relations with Mexico will look, a review of his rhetoric and policy is necessary.

Tensions with Mexico under Trump first began during his campaign. Throughout his move to gain popularity, Trump repeatedly emphasized that he was going to build a wall across the Mexican-American border and force the Mexican government to fund the project. In addition to his wall idea, he called the Mexican people “drug dealers”, “criminals”, and other crude names that would naturally strike emotions of anger within them, as well as Americans of Mexican descent, beginning an era of tense relations between America and Mexico. While Trump’s wall would be ineffective for the reasons he intended to build it (to limit drug smuggling), he did act on the idea of limiting Mexican immigration to the United States. Due to the extreme limitation of Mexican immigrants, domestic problems began to arise within Mexico, with crime rates rising significantly. For example, in 2017, Mexico experienced about 25 people per 100,000 committing a crime, which was a 28.5% increase from 2016’s rate (Obama era). Trump’s election and an increase in border security forced a massive rise in criminal activity inside of Mexico. As a result, drug smuggling became a more appealing option to those struggling and therefore led to an extensive amount of drugs crossing the American border and doing exactly what President Trump intended to stop. The rise in crime also contributed to another major crisis: the immigration crisis. Anyone affected by the limitation of immigration to the U.S. would want to leave Mexico and led to extreme efforts by Mexican citizens to leave the country. As a result, the Trump administration cracked down on immigrants, arresting large numbers of people and separating families, leading many Americans to question the ethics of the President. However, after the Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected in 2018, he consistently acted with dignity and kindness towards the president, despite the questionable comments directed at Mexicans that Trump has made across his political career. This is what complicates current relations with Mexico since the relationship between Trump and López Obrador remains positive while Mexico is consistently affected negatively by policy from Trump and his administration. The most feasible reason for this situation is an effort by President López Obrador to establish a good relationship with Trump, and therefore attempt and influence him to become more lenient with policy towards Mexico. With the power shift that approaches in 2021 though, President López Obrador may be looking towards a new objective in regards to American relations.


It can be reasonably expected, given the democratic pushback to Trump’s decisions towards Mexico, that Biden has different intentions than Trump when it comes to Mexican policy. This may be important to Mexican President López Obrador, as he may use the positive relationship previously established with Trump as a vantage point to being a good ally to the United States, and therefore may give him a stronger role in influencing Biden’s policy towards Mexico. Regardless of López Obrador’s role, it can still be reasonable to expect Biden to ease up on the extreme border control and stop the overuse of I.C.E. in America. As a result, Mexican-American relations will most likely improve, opening up more room for diplomacy, more advanced security opportunities, and economic advancements between the two countries. From there, Biden will have the opportunity to do what Trump intended and limit drug trafficking across the border, since a joint effort on both sides of the border can be expected. Overall, Biden is in a good position to have a friendly alliance with Mexico. Under Biden, the United States will probably see a rise in trade between America and Mexico, a decently large rise in immigration to the U.S., and a closer relationship with the Mexican government.



Final Thoughts


Coming into a new political era, the United States will see a drastic shift in foreign policy in the next 1-2 years. The Biden administration will shift away from Trump’s “America First” sentiments and re-establish the positive relationships lost under Trump. In 2021, friendlier relations with NATO countries, Mexico, and Pacific nations like Australia and South Korea can be expected to be seen, and as a result, an increase in exportation of U.S. goods. The Biden administration can be expected to reverse the isolationist mindset of the previous administration and recover the vast web of allies that existed under Obama. However, relations with Russia and other autocracy nations may be at risk, as they relied heavily on the personal relationships between the leaders of both nations. As a whole, Biden’s foreign policy plan will end up being very similar to Obama’s, but the actions that will need to be taken will be very unique. By the end of Biden’s presidency, it can be expected for the U.S. to have an extensive amount of close allies and be well-positioned for worldwide influence. The future is bright for American international relations, but as we look forward, we must treat every development with an open mind, since in the end, these decisions affect everybody.


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